Understanding the Months of Inventory in Central Texas Real Estate: A Data-Driven Market Analysis
March 17, 2025: The Central Texas real estate market is shaped by supply and demand dynamics that fluctuate across various cities and price points. One of the key indicators of market health is the Months of Inventory (MOI), which measures how long it would take to sell all available homes at the current sales pace, assuming no new properties are listed. A lower MOI suggests a strong seller’s market, where demand exceeds supply, while a higher MOI indicates a buyer’s market, where inventory levels are more abundant relative to demand.
Analyzing the latest data, we can see that certain cities in Central Texas are experiencing high demand with limited inventory, while others have a surplus of homes available for purchase. In Austin, the MOI ranges from 4.37 months in the $400K price range to 8.57 months in the $1M+ category, demonstrating a relatively balanced market. However, neighboring cities show more drastic variations. Cedar Park, for example, has an MOI of just 1.20 months for homes priced at $200K, while the $1M+ price category jumps to 8.40 months, reflecting a shift in buyer activity based on price points.
In contrast, some areas reveal significant inventory excess, particularly in the higher price brackets. Marble Falls has an MOI of 75 months for homes priced above $1M, signaling a slow-moving luxury market. Lago Vista follows a similar pattern, with a staggering 69-month MOI in the same price category. This indicates that high-end properties in these regions are taking years to sell, suggesting either a mismatch in pricing or a lower buyer pool.
Meanwhile, markets like Buda and Cedar Creek present relatively stable inventory levels across different price points. Buda shows a gradual increase from 1.50 months at the $200K level to 11.25 months at $700K, while Cedar Creek ranges from 2.29 months at $400K to 12.00 months at $800K. These numbers highlight how affordability plays a crucial role in market activity, with lower-priced homes moving significantly faster than higher-end properties.
Other cities such as Georgetown and Round Rock exhibit a more consistent inventory distribution. Georgetown's MOI fluctuates between 3.40 months at $400K to 11.00 months at $900K, suggesting moderate demand across price tiers. Round Rock, on the other hand, maintains a balanced range, with a low of 3.14 months in the $400K range and a peak of 8.57 months in the $800K category. These figures indicate relatively stable demand in these regions, making them attractive options for both buyers and sellers.
Extreme variations are also seen in certain towns where MOI jumps dramatically between price points. In Hutto, the inventory for homes priced at $200K is at 0.00 months, indicating an exceptionally fast-moving market, but spikes to 22.50 months at $700K. Similarly, Manor sees an MOI of 0.00 months at $200K but a dramatic increase to 36.00 months at $900K. These fluctuations emphasize the disparities in demand across different pricing segments and indicate where inventory might be struggling to meet buyer expectations.
For homebuyers, a higher MOI means they have more negotiating power, as sellers may need to adjust pricing or offer incentives to move their listings. Conversely, sellers in areas with low MOI may be able to secure higher offers and close deals more quickly. Investors looking for emerging opportunities should closely examine cities where inventory levels are shifting significantly, as these areas could present strong future appreciation potential.
The Central Texas real estate landscape remains diverse, with market conditions varying greatly depending on city and price range. Understanding these inventory trends can help buyers, sellers, and investors make informed decisions in a rapidly evolving housing market.
